38. Using system dynamics to assess the availability of emergency care at a regional level
Invited abstract in session TD-2: System dynamics, stream Sessions.
Tuesday, 15:30-17:00Room: NTNU, Realfagbygget R8
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Matthew Pentecost
|
| Dutch Healthcare Authority (NZa) | |
| 2. | Britt Zweers
|
| Regulering, Nederlandse Zorgautoriteit | |
| 3. | Geert-Jan Kommer
|
| Dept for Public Health Forecasting, Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment | |
| 4. | Ingrid Seinen
|
| Dutch Healthcare Authority (NZa) | |
| 5. | Victoria Shestalova
|
| Dutch Healthcare Authority (NZa) | |
| 6. | Jeljer Hoekstra
|
| RIVM |
Abstract
We present a system dynamics model of a regional emergency and urgent care network encompassing hospital emergency departments (ED), ambulances, and urgent primary care. By connecting these services, the model identifies levers for reducing ED bottlenecks by improving resource allocation within the care system. It provides insights into how different policies can affect available ED capacity (beds and personnel) as well as patient turnaround times (waiting and treatment times), enabling scenario analyses of policy options.
The model features two key innovations. First, it covers the complete regional emergency and urgent care system, allowing for the study of substitution possibilities within the system. Second, each ED is modeled as a separate entity, offering flexibility and granularity at a regional level. A region can have any number of EDs, with different sizes, patient mixes, and other characteristics. This level of detail provides insight into within-region differences in ED use and allows for the study of patient reallocations linked to changes in the supply of care.
The model was calibrated using data from one region in the Netherlands. A scenario analysis was conducted to assess the impact of developments such as increased demand for care and the closure of an ED. We present the results of this application and discuss the model’s future potential. Although developed for the Netherlands, many aspects of this model are potentially useful in international settings.
Keywords
- Emergency Department
- Healthcare policy modelling
- Modelling and simulation
Status: accepted
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