30. Investigating health policies in childhood obesity using system modelling
Invited abstract in session TD-2: System dynamics, stream Sessions.
Tuesday, 15:30-17:00Room: NTNU, Realfagbygget R8
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Hannah Callaghan
|
| Logistics, Stellenbosch Univeristy | |
| 2. | Linke Potgieter
|
| Logistics, Stellenbosch University |
Abstract
Since 1990, global obesity rates have doubled. The 2023 World Obesity Federation’s Atlas predicts that half the world’s population will be overweight or obese in the next 12 years. South Africa is not exempt to this growing crisis, as half of the country's adult population falls into these classes.
Although obesity is often perceived as an issue of adulthood, a rising number of South African children are affected, with 13% classified as overweight or obese. Childhood obesity is a strong predictor of obesity in adulthood and is linked to an increased risk of chronic diseases. Since children are heavily influenced by their immediate environment, it is important to investigate the effects of environment changes on children.
It has been shown that obesity is largely a result of social networks. Based on this understanding, this research develops a mathematical model to examine the spread of obesity across different population and BMI groups. The model captures the complex dynamics of obesity through a system of differential equations. It was calibrated to South African data and validated from past studies on dynamics and prevalence of obesity, as well as surveys conducted with healthcare professionals specializing in bariatrics. Additionally, the model is used to explore the possible impact of prevention strategies through sensitivity analysis and simulation experiments, identifying where the focus of interventions for reducing childhood obesity in South Africa should be.
Keywords
- Epidemiology and disease modelling
- Modelling and simulation
- Healthcare policy modelling
Status: accepted
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