2347. An Extended SEIR Model for Optimal Intervention to Comply with Healthcare Capacity and Personal Freedom During Pandemics
Invited abstract in session WB-8: Vulnerable Healthcare Systems, stream Health Care Management.
Wednesday, 10:45-12:15Room: H8
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Laura Flinkert
|
| Institut für Operations Research, Universität Hamburg |
Abstract
In a pandemic, a high infection rate —referring to the rapid and extensive spread of the disease within the population—can lead to many individuals becoming ill at the same time, resulting in increased demand for medical and intensive care. This can cause the healthcare system to become overwhelmed, so the government must prevent it in order to guarantee that every patient receives proper treatment, thereby maintaining human dignity in care.
The introduction of regulatory measures, such as contact restrictions, mask requirements, and hygiene measures slows down the disease spread and ensures the proper healthcare of citizens. At the same time, these measures are associated with restrictions on personal freedoms, such as freedom of movement and privacy, and are only justified during exceptional circumstances to protect public health.
The approach to this dilemma—maintaining human dignity while simultaneously preserving individual freedoms—is solving an optimization problem. This problem is examined using an extended SEIR model that explains epidemiological relationships. To reflect the timing and impact of different measures, various interventions are introduced into the model at different points in time. The model also considers the maximum capacity of available intensive care beds, ensuring that the number of hospitalized individuals does not exceed this capacity at any point in time. Additionally, the measures should restrict personal freedoms only as much as necessary.
Preliminary results regarding the determination of the optimal timing, duration, and nature of contact restrictions are presented.
Keywords
- Health Care
- Disaster and Crisis Management
Status: accepted
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