EURO 2025 Leeds
Abstract Submission

1952. Effects of Generative AI on scenario thinking

Invited abstract in session TD-61: Behavioural aspects of strategic planning, stream Behavioural OR.

Tuesday, 14:30-16:00
Room: Maurice Keyworth G.31

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Megan Crawford
Management, Edinburgh Napier University
2. Nicholas Rowland
Penn State University
3. Luciana Blaha
Edinburgh Business School/Marketing & Operations, Heriot-Watt University
4. Elena Fitkov-Norris
Accounting, Finance and Informatics, Kingston University

Abstract

This project focuses on the role of generative AI (GAI) in scenario thinking. Specifically, this investigation is experimentally testing the impacts of GAI use on the various cognitions that comprise "scenario thinking". The purpose is to help inform the growing use of GAI tools in strategy spaces. GAI is projected to continue growing in popularity as a strategy tool for senior executives and management to aid decision-making (Ferrer I Pico et al, 2025; Garvey & Svendensen, 2024). Yet, available data in support of GAI as an “effective” foresight tool remains minimal with mixed results, and largely focuses on the generative properties of the LLM rather than the human cognitive features. Scenario thinking is the primary cognitive effort employed when engaging in scenario planning (Cairns & Wright, 2011). Scenario thinking is informed by experience, knowledge, higher-order cognitions, problem solving, and more (Schacter, et al. 2017). A series of laboratory-based experiments are measuring the known selection of higher-order cognitive markers to scenario thinking, including creativity, causality, probability, episodic future thinking, mental simulation, parallel thinking, counterfactual thinking, and more (see Epstude, 2008; Guilford, 1950; Hastie, 2015; Torrance, 1988). These experimental studies are part of a larger grounded theory investigation

Keywords

Status: accepted

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