3023. Securing Critical Minerals for UK Net Zero 2050: Supply Risks and Circular Solutions
Invited abstract in session MD-42: Sustainable supply chains I, stream Circular & Sustainable Supply Chains.
Monday, 14:30-16:00Room: Newlyn GR.02
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Richard Jackson
|
Abstract
Critical minerals, such as nickel, lithium and rare earths, are those minerals that have both high economic vulnerability and global supply risk. They are vital for decarbonisation technologies, including electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, and nuclear reactors. Their limited availability and uneven global distribution place significant pressure on supply chains as demand surges for Net Zero solutions. Decision Analysis Services Ltd (DAS) conducted studies for the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre, on behalf of the UK Government Department for Business and Trade, to evaluate the supply risks and future UK mineral demand for electricity grid upgrades and nuclear deployment to meet Net Zero 2050 targets. We applied a bill of materials approach to undertake scenario analysis demand forecasting and assess risks at each stage of the value chain — from mining to refining and components. We have pinpointed bottlenecks, including capacity assessments, production concentration risks, comparisons with future demand, and geopolitical challenges. We also explored the opportunities associated with the circular economy and material substitution to mitigate these risks. The findings now inform government and industry on supply risks and mitigation strategies for aluminium, copper, and nuclear materials essential to decarbonisation.
Keywords
- Supply Chain Management
- OR in Sustainability
- Forecasting
Status: accepted
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