1887. Behavioural dimensions of avalanche forecasting
Invited abstract in session TB-61: Addressing behavioral issues of real-world problems 2, stream Behavioural OR.
Tuesday, 10:30-12:00Room: Maurice Keyworth G.31
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Ian Durbach
|
| Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews |
Abstract
Public avalanche forecasts are published daily during winter in many countries. These forecasts are made by a team of expert forecasters who combine daily field observations about the current snow conditions with a range of other information, including the output of mathematical models. In this talk I describe a collaborative project with the Scottish Avalanche Information Service that aims to develop new statistical models to better understand the judgemental processes behind avalanche forecasts; to understand how avalanches, when they occur, affect later forecasts; and to use this understanding to design interventions that improve forecasting practice.
Keywords
- Behavioural OR
- Forecasting
- OR in Environment and Climate change
Status: accepted
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