1565. Which uncertainty matters most in an environmental decision case: climate change, predictions, or preferences?
Invited abstract in session WB-8: Decision aiding under uncertainty 2, stream Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding.
Wednesday, 10:30-12:00Room: Clarendon SR 2.08
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Sebastian Schär
|
| Environmental Social Sciences (ESS), Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology | |
| 2. | Judit Lienert
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| Environmental Social Sciences (ESS), Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology |
Abstract
Climate change imposes challenges on sewer systems due to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. Blue-green infrastructure (BGI), such as vegetated basins, roofs, and ponds, can help address these challenges by retaining water. BGI provides multifunctional benefits, such as heat mitigation and biodiversity facilitation. There are, however, many BGI options with different characteristics, benefits, and costs, which must be evaluated against heterogeneous stakeholder interests. Eliciting preferences under these conditions is usually associated with uncertainty, and predicting outcomes of options depends on assumptions about external conditions, such as climate change. We employ multi-criteria decision analysis (multi-attribute value/utility theory) to assess BGI options in a Swiss municipality under different climate scenarios. To handle uncertainty in preference information and performance predictions, we use the concept of expected expected utility (EEU). EEU samples over probability distributions of modelling parameters and confines overall uncertainty in the utilities to a single number that allows to determine a ranking and identify potential consensus. In stepwise sensitivity analysis, we relax uncertainty modelling and test the influence on the ranking to inform further elicitation efforts. Preliminary results indicate that uncertainty in preference information influences the ranking stronger than uncertainty in performance predictions or climate uncertainty.
Keywords
- Decision Analysis
- OR in Environment and Climate change
- Water Management
Status: accepted
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