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884. Well-being horizons for silver and golden ages: An application of traditional and fuzzy Markov chains

Invited abstract in session MB-63: Insurance Risk Management, stream OR in Banking, Finance and Insurance: New Tools for Risk Management.

Monday, 10:30-12:00
Room: S14 (building: 101)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. QI GUO
Statistics, University Carlos III of Madrid
2. Irene Albarran
Statistics, University Carlos III of Madrid
3. Pablo Jesús Alonso-González
Economics, Universidad de Alcalá
4. Aurea Grané
Statistics, University Carlos III of Madrid

Abstract

European societies are currently in a process of population ageing. Although this is the general trend, it would be desirable to know whether this process is being produced with the same characteristics and intensity in all European countries. In this work information from the last three waves of SHARE macro-survey is used for four countries (Germany, Poland, Denmark and Spain) as the basis for a longitudinal well-being and dependency indicator with the aim of studying whether the characteristics of ageing are similar in these regions. First, long-term population distributions are obtained according to the value of the aforementioned indicator. Next, classical and fuzzy Markov chains are used to obtain steady-state distributions regarding age group, gender, country and wave. Finally, a proper metric for probability distributions is used to cluster these profiles in several groups. Results lead us to conclude that the ageing process is not homogeneous among the studied populations.

Keywords

Status: accepted


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