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458. A Variable Horizon Stability Concept for Partially Known Preferences in Bilateral Conflicts

Invited abstract in session WB-36: Game Theory, Solutions and Structures X, stream Game Theory, Solutions and Structures.

Wednesday, 10:30-12:00
Room: 32 (building: 306)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Leandro Rêgo
Statistics and Applied Math Department, Universidade Federal do Ceará
2. Emerson R Sabino
Management Engineering, Federal University of Pernambuco

Abstract

Conflict analysis is a research area that using mathematical models represents and studies the evolution of conflicts in a systematic way. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is a successful model in this area due to its flexibility and relative ease of use. In GMCR, many stability concepts try to capture different behavioral characteristics of decision makers (DMs) in conflicts. In this paper, a stability concept is proposed for the GMCR that is useful in applications where DMs do not have full knowledge about their opponents’ preferences. As in real conflicts there are factors that may make it difficult to fully obtain information about others’ preferences, to understand DMs' behavior in such a scenario is valuable. With our proposed stability concept, it is possible to carry out a stability analysis in the GMCR even if only part of the preference information is known. The Variable Horizon with Partially Known Preferences Stability works by anticipating what a given DM believes that final conflict state would be after any chosen number of moves and countermoves following its initial move in a bilateral conflict. The proposed solution concept generalizes two important stability notions, limited-move stability and maximin stability, which are particular cases when DMs have full knowledge and no knowledge at all, respectively. Finally, an application of a dispute among two Brazilian states about a certain geographical area is made with the proposed stability.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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