EURO 2024 Copenhagen
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3951. Design a robust renewable electricity system for Europe considering extreme weather conditions

Invited abstract in session TC-22: Stochastic models in energy systems planning and operations, stream Energy Management.

Tuesday, 12:30-14:00
Room: 81 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Xiaoming Kan
Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology

Abstract

Following sustained cost reductions and rapid diffusion into the power generation mix, renewable energy technologies such as wind power and solar PV may serve as the cornerstone for the future electricity system. An electricity system dominated by wind and solar is susceptible to uncertainty in weather conditions, particularly long periods of low wind and sunlight, known as "Dunkelflaute." Previous studies investigating how to design a renewable electricity system typically employ a deterministic approach, which assumes perfect foresight about future weather conditions. In this study, we develop an adaptive robust optimization model to analyze a future renewable electricity system for Europe while considering the uncertainties in weather conditions. We analyze 40 years of historical weather data using the Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method to identify extreme weather conditions for wind and solar power. Our results show that considering "Dunkelflaute" events for the entire Europe may increase the installed generation capacity by 16% for wind power and 36% for solar PV, compared to the base case results calculated with typical weather data. Additionally, the transmission grid is more than doubled, while the hydrogen storage capacity is eight times greater than the base case. Consequently, the electricity system cost may increase by more than 20%. These results highlight the importance of accounting for weather-related uncertainties in designing future electricity systems.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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