EURO 2024 Copenhagen
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3933. A New Integrated Assessment Framework for Energy-Economy-Environment Modeling: Insights from Coal Phase-out in the Turkish Power Sector towards Net-zero Emission Targets

Invited abstract in session WC-22: Environment and climate change, stream Energy Management.

Wednesday, 12:30-14:00
Room: 81 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Ebru Voyvoda
Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University
2. Bora Kat
The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK)
3. Umit Sahin
Sabancı Üniversity, İstanbul Policy Center
4. Saeed Teimourzadeh
R and D, EPRA Energy
5. OSMAN BULENT TOR
EPRA ENERGY
6. Alp Erinç Yeldan
Economics, Kadir Has Univ

Abstract

Power sector plays a crucial role towards decarbonization for many economies, especially in line with the net-zero targets to limit global warming by 1.5 Celsius degrees. Technical constraints intrinsic to the sector, penetration of new technologies, investment and operational costs, as well as its links with the rest of the economy make the power sector a complex system to analyze. Although there are numerous studies to integrate bottom-up power sector technology models with top-down macroeconomic models, this study is the first attempt to link the three separate and interrelated models within a single framework: an electricity market simulation model, a generation expansion planning model, and an applied general equilibrium model. The proposed framework is implemented to analyze alternative scenarios aiming at successful phasing-out of coal-fired power plants in Turkey. The results suggest that, given the existing capacity and potential of renewables, Turkey can achieve her coal-phase out by early 2030s. The results also show, while installed capacity and generation of coal-fired power plants are reduced, real GDP and electricity demand could be maintained; and the CO2 emissions from power sector could be reduced by as much as 50% in 2030 compared to their 2018 level.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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