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3909. Impact of imperfect foresight in long-term energy planning: A focus on hydrogen production in Europe and the Nordics
Invited abstract in session WC-9: Hydrogen and Electricity Modeling and Regulation I, stream Energy Markets.
Wednesday, 12:30-14:00Room: 10 (building: 116)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Rasmus Bramstoft
|
| Technical University of Denmark | |
| 2. | David Garcia Marin
|
| Managememt, DTU | |
| 3. | Marie Münster
|
| DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark |
Abstract
Energy system models provide insight into future energy trends, with real-life applications for supporting strategic decision-making. In this study, we assess the impact of a rolling planning horizon methodology (i.e. myopic, limited foresight, and perfect foresight over the modelling horizon) in the comprehensive fully sector-coupled European energy system model, Balmorel. We compare imperfect foresight i.e. myopic and limited foresight with full decision-making foresight, with a particular focus on the role of hydrogen production in the Nordic region. We apply policy targets and visions, and assess the impact on the design of future energy systems as well as how the role of the Nordic region as a hydrogen exporter is impacted. In addition to analyzing the potential impacts on the design of the energy system, we find considerably longer computation time for solving the comprehensive large-scale energy system with limited or full foresight compared to a myopic approach. Finally, we discuss the implications for energy modellers and decision-makers when assessing future energy systems, which are optimized using different planning foresight horizons.
Keywords
- Energy Policy and Planning
- OR in Energy
Status: accepted
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