EURO 2024 Copenhagen
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3830. An overview of the application of OR methods to alcohol drinking behaviours, and a geographical analysis of alcohol consumption in Wales

Invited abstract in session MC-17: Simulation models in healthcare, stream OR in Health Services (ORAHS).

Monday, 12:30-14:00
Room: 40 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Elin Williams
Mathematics, Cardiff University
2. Daniel Gartner
School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
3. Paul Harper
School of Mathematics, Cardiff University
4. Geraint Palmer
School of Mathematics, Cardiff University

Abstract

Alcohol consumption is a recognised public health issue, and it is believed that the resultant harms are rising since the COVID-19 pandemic. Alcohol drinking affects healthcare including the demands of alcohol-attributable diseases; mental health and housing services demands on social care; and demands on the criminal justice system resulting from violent and aggressive behaviours. This talk will present an overview of the application of operational research (OR) methods to model alcohol drinking behaviours, specifically within healthcare, social care, and criminal justice settings. Some OR methods are utilised frequently in alcohol consumption literature, namely agent-based modelling (ABM), Markov models, and network analysis. The recurrence of ABM and network analysis highlight the social component of alcohol consumption. Other methods such as system dynamics are utilised less frequently but could be useful models to include in the literature to gain a whole-system perspective. Alcohol consumption data collected in Wales can be analysed geographically by health board, local authority, and area deprivation, to gain insights into the diverse alcohol drinking patterns reported, and how resultant harms vary geographically and by consumption behaviour. Based on the literature evidence, alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harms data, and collaboration with stakeholders, an initial proposal on how to model alcohol drinking behaviours across the whole system is presented.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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