EURO 2024 Copenhagen
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3803. Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook

Invited abstract in session WC-11: Scenarios and foresight practices: Behavioural issues III, stream Behavioural OR.

Wednesday, 12:30-14:00
Room: 12 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Megan Crawford
Management, Edinburgh Napier University

Abstract

A series of lab and field studies were conducted with managers, executives, and postgraduates to test the hypothesis that priming effects exist within any given scenario planning workshop (Crawford, 2021). The studies show that priming scenario practitioners with real-world, yet biased views of the external business environment can significantly alter how they view the future, scenario development, and implications for action. Early indicators also suggest some of these biases may be internally consistent. If true, biases based on priming effects suggests potentialities for both facilitated nudging (Bryson, Grime, Murthy & Wright, 2016; Crawford & Wright, 2024) and predictive modelling (i.e. machine learning and AI; Spaniol & Rowland, 2023). These empirical studies are part of a larger grounded theory investigation. Results support three key claims. First, all scenario planning workshops are susceptible to implicit influences. Second, there may be as much consistency as inconsistency in biased scenario thinking and foresight across teams. Third, facilitators need to understand these variabilities in order to help advance meaningful strategies.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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