EURO 2024 Copenhagen
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3676. Bioeconomy transition, using hybrid simulation to assess challenges and opportunities for livestock farmers in Norway

Invited abstract in session MD-12: OR in Agriculture, stream OR in Agriculture and Forestry .

Monday, 14:30-16:00
Room: 13 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Hugo Herrera
Geography Department, University of Bergen

Abstract

The bioeconomy is a crucial concept for addressing major environmental challenges. Transitioning towards a bioeconomy requires coordinated efforts from various stakeholders and has the potential to significantly transform value chains, particularly in the agriculture sector. However, the pathway to this transition is complex and dynamic. This paper aims to shed light on this complexity by employing a hybrid simulation approach that integrates system dynamics and agent-based simulations. Our focus is to explore both the intended and unintended changes that a bioeconomy transition might bring to dairy livestock farmers in Norway.
The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, it examines the advantages and drawbacks of using hybrid simulations to model farming systems.
Second, it offers practical insights into the impact of introducing and promoting new biotechnologies in the industry. In particular , the simulation results highlight significant challenges regarding a bio-based economy for dairy farmers resulting on the potential exacerbation of the previous trend towards fewer, larger, and more intensive farms.
Moreover the simulation results also indicate a potential geographical concentration of farms in small areas of Norway. The potential concentration of farms in very few hotspots for dairy farming is a consequence of the scales needed to justify investments in supportive infrastructure like bioreactors.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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