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3185. A TEMOA-Europe-based scenario analysis to examine crucial strategies for decarbonization

Invited abstract in session WA-19: Towards sustainable development, stream OR in Energy.

Wednesday, 8:30-10:00
Room: 44 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Daniele Lerede
2. Valeria Di Cosmo
Dipartimento di Economia e Statistica "Cognetti de Martiis", Università di Torino

Abstract

Europe still has a strong dependence on fossil fuels, and natural gas in particular, despite the claimed commitments towards carbon neutrality by 2050. The REPowerEU Plan is reducing the huge amount of gas imported from Russia. Nonetheless, the main strategy to guarantee security of supply mainly envisages long-term agreements with more reliable partners for gas and a larger support to the development of renewables. At the same time, a carbon-neutral energy generation technology nuclear fission is undergoing a substantial phase-out, and the use of fossil fuels for energy production is discouraged through the adoption of growing carbon tax levels in the form of excise duties and the Emissions Trading System. This work presents a scenario analysis carried out using the open-software and open-framework energy system optimization model TEMOA-Europe. Taken for granted the absence of Russian gas imports starting from 2027, the examined alternative scenarios envisage: 1) a business-as-usual scenario; 2) a scenario with increasing carbon prices and constraints on nuclear capacity to simulate the current phase-out trend; 3) a scenario with increasing carbon prices and the possibility to increasingly rely on nuclear electricity; 4) a net-zero emissions by 2050 scenario. Energy costs, the profitability of renewable energy projects and the role of gas are evaluated for each of the mentioned scenarios providing useful insights for the development of the European energy system.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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