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2637. A Fuzzy Logic Application to Manage Costs in Large-Scale Projects
Invited abstract in session TA-47: How to support complex decisions. Negotiating the trade-off between Social, Environmental and Economic values 3, stream Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis.
Tuesday, 8:30-10:00Room: 50 (building: 324)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Rubina Canesi
|
| ICEA, Univeristy of Padova | |
| 2. | Chiara D'Alpaos
|
| Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Padova |
Abstract
In large-scale projects, such as transport infrastructure developments, the cost planning phase stands out as one of the most crucial for the project success. Cost and time overruns, during the construction phase, are often the cause of project failure. A meticulous, conscious, and accurate ex-ante analysis of cost and time assessment can greatly contribute to the efficient and effective completion of a project. Various approaches have been developed to estimate and mitigate cost overruns. Such mitigation is subject to careful analysis of project risks, encompassing construction, environmental, social acceptance, and market risks. In this contribution, we propose the implementation of the risk assessment tool suggested by the National Anti-Corruption Authority (ANAC) using fuzzy logic to enhance its effectiveness. This application can provide public authorities with a tool to assess expected risk during the design and implementation phases of the project. By associating probability matrices of occurrence and expected impact with fuzzy prioritizations, this tool can facilitate risk assessment and management during the design and construction phases as well as consensus creation process.
Keywords
- Analytic Hierarchy Process
- Decision Support Systems
- Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Status: accepted
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