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2480. Multi-objective optimization to support decision making in policy interventions
Invited abstract in session MB-13: OR Innovations in Policy Making - A, stream Soft OR and Problem Structuring Methods.
Monday, 10:30-12:00Room: 15 (building: 116)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Laura Selicato
|
| CNR - IRSA | |
| 2. | Alessandro Pagano
|
| Water Research Institute, National Research Council | |
| 3. | ESTRELLA LOPEZ MOYA
|
| ICATALIST | |
| 4. | Manuel Bea Martínez
|
| I-CATALIST S.L. | |
| 5. | Andreas Panagopoulos
|
| SOIL AND WATER RESOURCES INSTITUTE, HELLENIC AGRICULTURAL ORGANISATION | |
| 6. | Vassilios Pisinaras
|
| Soil & Water Resources Institute, Hellenic Agricultural Organization - DIMITRA | |
| 7. | Flavia Esposito
|
| Department of Mathematics, University of Bari Aldo Moro | |
| 8. | Raffaele Giordano
|
| CNR-IRSA |
Abstract
The aim of the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Nexus (WEFE Nexus) approach is to overcome the traditional “siloed" approach to natural resources management – i.e. based on sectorial perspectives – ultimately achieving an integrated resources management.
In this study, we particularly focus on the support to policy-making in complex Nexus systems, proposing a highly participatory methodology to co-design potential policy interventions capable of achieving sectoral security, while optimizing the Nexus.
A System Dynamics Model (stock and flow) that describes the security dimensions was built. We then selected the variables representative of the concept of security, and built the underlying equations, with the idea of evaluating their variation in different political scenarios. Multi-objective optimization (MOO) has been used for identifying and analyzing existing and potential implications and trade-offs in intervention policies.
In our framework, we compared two distinct a posteriori MOO methods - pattern search (PS) and the Evolutionary algorithms (EA) - to provide the Pareto front for two intervention areas, i.e., Donana and Pinios (LENSES project). Some hints are given on how this tool turns out to be very useful as a support to decision-makers, to allow accounting for their preferences in the process.
Keywords
- Soft OR
- Multi-Objective Decision Making
- Dynamical Systems
Status: accepted
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