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2441. Evaluating actor behavior under uncertainty for participatory interventions
Invited abstract in session MA-11: Choice behavior, stream Behavioural OR.
Monday, 8:30-10:00Room: 12 (building: 116)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
1. | Ruben Akse
|
Business Administration, Radboud University |
Abstract
Multi-actor decision-making for transport innovations is complex, among others because of the uncertainty experienced by decision-makers about other actors’ behavior. Reducing this uncertainty by gathering more knowledge is insufficient and often impossible. Therefore, interventions are needed that assist actors in stimulating adaptive and collaborative thinking. The research gap this study aims to address is how to assess actor behavior under uncertainty for participatory interventions. Previous studies show that actors in the transport domain experience more uncertainty about governance than system problems regarding technology and sustainability. Also, actors treat long-term uncertainties as short-term risks, and are focused on reducing the latter by project management strategies. In this study, we intend to validate these findings, and how this is conditioned by individual and organizational variables. A stated preference survey has been performed in which mobility professionals had to indicate their strategy in alternative transport innovation scenarios. Scenarios include governance, system, long- and short-term uncertainties. Respondents are asked to state their preference for a strategy, given the scenario: Stop the project, do a risk-assessment for their own organization, or explore the possibilities collaboratively. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis for actor behavior under uncertainty and are illustrated by an intervention in a serious game.
Keywords
- Behavioural OR
- Group Decision Making and Negotiation
- Transportation
Status: accepted
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