EURO 2024 Copenhagen
Abstract Submission

EURO-Online login

2400. What Could Go Wrong? Disrupting Denmark’s Energy Transition Using Policy-Driven Scenarios

Invited abstract in session WD-9: Hydrogen and Electricity Modeling and Regulation II, stream Energy Markets.

Wednesday, 14:30-16:00
Room: 10 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Frederik Fristed
Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark (DTU)

Abstract

In the run-up to 2030, the path towards the EU’s ambitious 55% CO2 reduction goal is shaped by existing energy infrastructure and already adopted policies. Each nation's energy system characteristics, reduction targets, and local challenges affect the EU's collective decarbonization. This work utilizes the open PyPSA-Eur model for the sector-coupled European energy system, comprising 33 countries and Denmark with a higher resolution of nine nodes. The study examines Denmark's green transition and how it could be disrupted when different sectors fail to meet set targets for decarbonizing agriculture and expanding capacity for green hydrogen electrolysis, renewable generators, and power-to-heat. We constrain CO2 emissions on a national level, aligned with each country’s pledged CO2 reduction targets, and, in Denmark, implement frozen-policy projections for energy production and sectoral emissions. Focused on 2030, we analyze eight scenarios to assess the impact of each sector on system investments and CO2 abatement costs. In addition, we extend the time horizon to 2040 to account for the increasing decarbonization efforts of neighboring countries. We show: (1) increased CO2 abatement costs if the agricultural sector fails to decarbonize; (2) the crucial role of heat electrification for low-cost flexibility; (3) the dependency of green hydrogen investments on renewable capacity limits and emission constraints in surrounding countries. Our model and data are openly available.

Keywords

Status: accepted

Back to the list of papers