EURO 2024 Copenhagen
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2387. Strategic foresight: Combining human creativity with analytical rigour

Invited abstract in session WC-11: Scenarios and foresight practices: Behavioural issues III, stream Behavioural OR.

Wednesday, 12:30-14:00
Room: 12 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Carolina van Weerd

Abstract

Within the defence and security domain, the need for foresight (in order to be able to anticipate trends that will impact the future security environment) is increasing due to the complexity of the changing world around us. Although there are forecasts supported by quantitative analyses, foresight is a discipline in which expert judgement remains central. Therefore we advocate a symbiosed approach of human creativity combined with analytical support.
TNO’s VISTA (View on STrategic Anticipation) toolkit allows to combine more analytical rigour with human creativity in foresight. The toolkit provides tools to policymakers and analysts with regards to foresight in the defence domain, based on seven steps. These steps do not need to be taken sequentially, nor are they always needed depending on the scope of the foresight case.
The presentation of this paper will address the individual steps of our VISTA toolkit, including the way we combined input from analytical methods, scientists and military experts. Special attention will be given to elements that distinguish our toolkit from other, frequently used approaches: (1) a technology focus as starting point, (2) an integral approach, by not only looking at trends in isolation, but to explicitly relate trends with one another throughout the entire DESTEP spectrum and (3) a more detailed insight in possible future security challenges by adding a regional perspective to global future world scenarios.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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