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2362. A model-based measure for the resilience of resource use under the risk of disruption
Invited abstract in session TC-33: Optimal control and resilience, stream Optimal Control Theory and Applications.
Tuesday, 12:30-14:00Room: 42 (building: 303A)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Stefan Wrzaczek
|
| Economic Frontiers, Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) | |
| 2. | Michael Kuhn
|
| Vienna Institute of Demography |
Abstract
We study a simple economic-ecological framework of resource extraction that explicilty incorporates (i) a regimechanging shock and (ii) the possibility a resistence threshold/Skiba-point to lead to divergent behaviours towards either systemic recovery or system collaps following the shock. This structure allows us to model resilience (in the sense of regime-changing shocks either being avoided or systemic recovery being possible and optimal) and its behavioural implications in a meaningful way. Specifically, we propose a model-based measure of resilience that upon proper calibration of the model can be employed in numerical assessments of the implications for resilience of different extraction policies. We also study a simple example and show that anticipation of shocks is leading to precautionary behaviour that boosts systemic resilience.
Keywords
- Dynamical Systems
- Optimal Control
- Environmental Management
Status: accepted
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