EURO 2024 Copenhagen
Abstract Submission

EURO-Online login

2242. Navigating Arctic Waters: A Risk-Averse Stochastic Shortest Path Problem

Invited abstract in session WD-55: Supply Chain Network Optimization, stream Transportation.

Wednesday, 14:30-16:00
Room: S02 (building: 101)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Gleb Sibul
2. Peter Schütz
Dept. of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, NTNU
3. Kjetil Fagerholt
Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Abstract

Rapid global warming and declining ice are making Arctic routes more navigable. These routes can reduce shipping time between Europe and Asia, offering economic and environmental benefits by lowering fuel consumption and associated emissions. The main uncertainty in the planning of the routes stems from dynamically changing ice conditions. In this paper, we formulate a risk-averse stochastic shortest path problem for a vessel sailing in the Arctic Ocean. It estimates an optimal vessel path before the departure, without knowing the exact realization of ice conditions. The objective is to minimize total travel time under conditional value at risk, considering the performance in the worst scenarios. The sailing speed (and hence the travel time) depends on the ice conditions, where a ship can sail at normal service speed in ice-free water, while the speed must be decreased in unfavorable ice conditions. The model is tested on historical and projected ice data to estimate transit routes between Europe and Asia via the Arctic Ocean. We are interested in obtaining estimates of travel times between Europe and Asia and evaluating possible delays to gain insights into the future of Arctic Shipping.

Keywords

Status: accepted

Back to the list of papers