EURO 2024 Copenhagen
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2172. Screening Curves in Net-Zero Energy Systems: Insights and Limitations

Invited abstract in session TC-9: Market-based analyses in long-term energy system models, stream Energy Markets.

Tuesday, 12:30-14:00
Room: 10 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Maximilian Walde
Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universität zu Köln gGmbH
2. Julian Keutz
EWI
3. Oliver Ruhnau
Hertie School

Abstract

Various dispatchable power generation technologies can complement each other due to their diverse economic characteristics. Screening curves have been used to determine optimal mixes of power plant capacity from load duration curves since the 1970s. Starting with only fossil and nuclear generation technologies, recent applications have incorporated variable renewable energy sources by considering residual load duration curves. However, the applicability of screening curves to net-zero energy systems with growing shares of renewables remains untested. Here, we aim at filling this gap by creating net-zero screening curves and comparing the derived optimal capacity with the results of a linear model minimizing total power system costs. In a first step, we exploit the screening curve approach to identify cost-optimal decarbonized dispatchable technologies as a function of renewable energy shares and across a wide range of cost assumptions. In a second step, we process the linear model and investigate aspects that are neglected in the screening curve model, i.e. the deployment of short-term storage and time-variant prices of synthetic fuels. Preliminary results show consistent technology choice for both the screening curve and linear model. However, the optimal capacity differs with rising shares of renewables, particularly for the technologies with lowest and highest variable cost. This raises concerns about the applicability of screening curves in net-zero energy systems.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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