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1995. Method comparison for optimal power-to-X plant sizing and operation under wind profile uncertainties

Invited abstract in session WC-9: Hydrogen and Electricity Modeling and Regulation I, stream Energy Markets.

Wednesday, 12:30-14:00
Room: 10 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Nicolas Campion
DTU Management, DTU
2. Ioannis Kountouris
DTU management, DTU
3. David Garcia Marin
Managememt, DTU
4. Marie Münster
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Abstract

This study centers on off-grid PtX plants powered by wind, whose optimal sizing is challenged by the variability and uncertainty of wind power profiles. This investigation spans various sizing methods, employing deterministic and 2 stage stochastic approaches, and also emphasizes the importance of accurate fuel production cost estimates to derive optimal plant sizing and investment decisions. Results indicate that using a deterministic least-cost investment and operation model with an average power profile year is most likely to lead to accurate fuel production cost estimates. Operational details’ influence on cost estimates is minimal, advocating for a linear plant operation model for efficient solving time. In analyzing the optimal sizing and profitability performances, this study shows that the most suitable approach depends on the expected ammonia selling price and the fuel production cost estimates. For scenarios with significantly higher selling prices than cost estimates, a deterministic sizing method with the worst weather year and modeling the flexible ammonia plant as fully flexible proves to lead to the most profitable operation. For scenarios with ammonia selling prices in the same range as cost estimates, using a 2-stage stochastic method with a set of average years leads to the highest profits during operation. While the study focuses on Bornholm, in Denmark, there is acknowledgment of the need for further research to generalize findings.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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