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1864. The critical role of uncertainty communication in informed decision-making
Invited abstract in session MD-11: Behavioral Decision Analysis III, stream Behavioural OR.
Monday, 14:30-16:00Room: 12 (building: 116)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Anna Cajochen
|
| Environmental Social Sciences (ESS), Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology | |
| 2. | Nadja Contzen
|
| ESS, Eawag | |
| 3. | Michael Siegrist
|
| D-USYS, ETH Zürich | |
| 4. | Judit Lienert
|
| Environmental Social Sciences (ESS), Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology |
Abstract
Our society is currently facing various sustainability challenges such as climate change, water pollution, and biodiversity loss. Decision-making problems aimed at solving these challenges are associated with considerable uncertainty. Uncertainty can arise from various sources such as measurement errors, difficulties to establish cause-effect relationships, disagreements between experts, or future unpredictability. Not only is the nature of uncertainty extensive, but other explanatory factors for effective uncertainty communication such as individual differences between recipients and the context of the situation must also be taken into account. Navigating the many factors essential to effective uncertainty communication makes this a challenging task. In our work, we examine the critical role of uncertainty communication from a decision analytical, economic, and psychological perspective. We address the definition, interpretation, and diverse communication formats for uncertainty, with a specific focus on enhancing understanding within multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) projects. It is crucial that stakeholders have an adequate understanding of uncertainty to identify their preferences and appropriate options. Therefore, our contribution is valuable for finding options to solve pressing sustainability problems and managing uncertainty in decision-making.
Keywords
- Decision Analysis
- Behavioural OR
- Risk Analysis and Management
Status: accepted
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