EURO 2024 Copenhagen
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1735. Expected Shots Concept for Football

Invited abstract in session TC-16: Football analytics, stream OR in Sports.

Tuesday, 12:30-14:00
Room: 19 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Jirka Poropudas
SportIQ
2. Ville-Pekka Inkilä
Football Association of Finland

Abstract

In football analytics, various metrics for teams' offensive efficiency have been presented. As the objective of the game is to score goals, the number of goals scored and the number of shot attempts are the most obvious efficiency metrics. The commonly used expected goals (xG) metric estimates the quality of shot attempts by assigning them a probability of scoring based on shot location and other factors. However, all these metrics share a common weakness as they focus solely on possessions where shots are attempted, neglecting the broader context of play. This presentation proposes an approach where this limitation is avoided using event data consisting of the locations and times of various ball touches such as passes, dribbles, and shots. The data are then used to divide the match into possessions, i.e., continuous sequences of touches by one team, and to estimate the probability that a given touch on the ball is a shot attempt. These probabilities are used to calculate the shot probability for each possession, i.e., the possession's expected shots value (xS). This metric allows one to measure the quality of possessions and teams' ability to create scoring chances without restricting the analysis to shot attempts that actually took place. The proposed approach is compatible with various extensions such as the skill level and tendencies of individual players as well as a more detailed description of the game state as provided by player tracking technologies.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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