EURO 2024 Copenhagen
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171. Using judgmental forecasting and scenario thinking for anticipating the future: what are the differences, the similarities, and the advantages of each?

Invited abstract in session WB-11: Scenarios and foresight practices: Behavioural issues II, stream Behavioural OR.

Wednesday, 10:30-12:00
Room: 12 (building: 116)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. George Wright
Business School, Strathclyde University

Abstract

Judgmental forecasting is the domain of psychologists interested in forecasting and covers the areas of judgmental probability forecasting and the judgmental adjustment of time-series models, mostly at an individual-participant level. Closely linked is the Delphi method which is a group-based method. By contrast, scenario thinking was, until recently, the domain of practitioners interested in helping organisations make better decisions in the face of uncertainty. My paper discusses the role of subjective probability and outcome verification, and the focus on single point estimates as opposed to creating multiple, broad-brush anticipations of the future. Until recently, very little academic research has used experimental techniques to evaluate the quality of developed scenarios, but this position is changing. Additionally, recent work within the judgmental forecasting tradition has combined judgmental prediction with scenario storylines, a focus that has also become part of practice - for example, within the UK National Grid energy scenarios that are used for national policymaking. Clearly, scenario thinking is now becoming strongly established in practice - perhaps as a response to the World's lack of preparedness for Covid-19 pandemic. I discuss the emerging need to develop and apply yardsticks of the quality of both the scenario development process and of the resultant scenario content. I outline my thoughts on guidelines for such standard setting.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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