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1656. Multivariate global sensitivity analysis of a coupled climate-economy model
Invited abstract in session MB-11: Behavioral Decision Analysis I, stream Behavioural OR.
Monday, 10:30-12:00Room: 12 (building: 116)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Leonardo Chiani
|
| Politecnico di Milano and RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Italy | |
| 2. | Emanuele Borgonovo
|
| Decision Sciences and ELEUSI Research Center, Bocconi University | |
| 3. | Elmar Plischke
|
| Institut für Endlagerforschung, TU Clausthal | |
| 4. | Massimo Tavoni
|
| Politecnico di Milano and CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy and RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Italy |
Abstract
We use a novel multivariate sensitivity analysis technique based on Optimal Transport to quantify the sources of uncertainty in future CO2 emissions to help support robust decision-making in climate policy. We apply these methods to an open-source climate-economy model (RICE50+), using the most up-to-date input distributions and long-term projections of key demographic and socio-economic drivers. We assess different scenarios to address different possible futures. We performed the same analysis on the global and regional levels, finding similar patterns but also regional specificities. We show the feasibility of applying new indices to a model with many correlated inputs and a time and region dependent output such as CO2 emissions pathways.
Keywords
- Risk Analysis and Management
- Decision Support Systems
- Complex Societal Problems
Status: accepted
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