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1552. Assessing the Energy and Socio-Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Expansion in Austria by 2030
Invited abstract in session TC-9: Market-based analyses in long-term energy system models, stream Energy Markets.
Tuesday, 12:30-14:00Room: 10 (building: 116)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Robert Gaugl
|
| Institute of Electricity Economics and Energy Innovation, Graz University of Technology | |
| 2. | Sonja Wogrin
|
| Graz University of Technology |
Abstract
To evaluate the impact of increased shares of renewable energy sources in electricity (RES-E) on wholesale electricity prices and demand in Austria by 2030, we linked a bottom-up electricity system model (ATLANTIS) with a top-down macroeconomic model (DYNK). This integrated approach enables a comprehensive analysis encompassing both energy and socio-economic dimensions, factoring in the continental European electricity grid constraints through ATLANTIS rather than relying on simplified representations. The study reveals the growing importance of gas-fired power plants in balancing the intermittent output from RES-E, indicating that these plants will continue to influence electricity market prices. It highlights the potential socio-economic benefits, including an 18% GDP growth by 2030 (compared to 2017) under Austria’s renewable expansion act (EAG) scenario, driven by population growth, export expansion, and increased total factor productivity, alongside a 20% rise in final electricity demand. A sensitivity analysis around CO2 pricing suggests higher electricity costs and reduced GDP growth, hinting at a slight dip in electricity demand versus the EAG scenario. The findings underscore the necessity for enhanced renewable integration and storage solutions to fully decarbonize Austria's electricity system, emphasizing the critical role of flexible gas-fired generation and the potential economic implications of transitioning to a more sustainable energy mix.
Keywords
- Simulation
- Sustainable Development
- Capacity Planning
Status: accepted
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