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1435. Delay cascading dominates large-scale disruptions in transport

Invited abstract in session TA-54: Resilience in Public Transport Planning, stream Public Transport Optimization.

Tuesday, 8:30-10:00
Room: S01 (building: 101)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Debabrata Panja
Computer Science, Utrecht University

Abstract

The dynamical intertwining of many heterogeneous operational elements, agents and locations are oft-cited generic factors to make myriad socio-technical systems such as supply chains, (inter) national trade and human mobility, prone to large-scale disruptions. These disruptions are emergent phenomena, and their underlying causes are _endogenous, stemming from the systems' operational planning_. We demonstrate this by analysing spreading of delays on the Dutch train network: the emergence of large-scale disruptions rests on the dynamic interdependencies among multiple `layers' of operational elements (services, rolling stock and crew). The interdependencies provide pathways for delay cascading, which gets activated when, constrained by local unavailability of on-time resources, already-delayed ones are used to operate new services. Cascading locally amplifies delays, which in turn get transported over the network to give rise to new constraints elsewhere.

Systemically building in (temporal) buffers can arrest delay propagation in socio-technical systems. However, the general tendency in Operations Research, reinforced by competitive pressures, is to myopically in reduced buffers. Ironically, such optimisations can push a system to the proverbial "cliff edge", increasing its fragility to large-scale disruptions. We therefore draw attention to the proposal that any welfare function that a system operator seeks to optimise should contain a measure of resilience.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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