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1365. Integrating uncertainties in a multi-criteria decision analysis with the ENTSCHEIDUNGSNAVI
Invited abstract in session TA-45: Multiple-Criteria Decision Support, stream Decision Support Systems.
Tuesday, 8:30-10:00Room: 30 (building: 324)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Mendy Tönsfeuerborn
|
| Chair of Decision Theory and Financial Services, RWTH Aachen University | |
| 2. | Sven Peters
|
| RWTH | EFi | |
| 3. | Rüdiger von Nitzsch
|
| Chair of Decision Theory and Financial Services, RWTH Aachen University |
Abstract
The ENTSCHEIDUNGSNAVI is an open-source decision support system based on multi-attribute utility theory, which has implemented various methods for dealing with uncertainties. To model decisions with uncertainties, decision-makers can use two categories: Forecast and Parameter Uncertainty. Forecast uncertainty is modeled with (combined) influence factors using discrete, user-defined probability distributions or predefined ‘worst-median-best’ distributions. Parameter Uncertainty allows imprecision for utilities, objective weights, and probability distributions. To analyze these uncertainties, the ENTSCHEIDUNGSNAVI offers several methods and tools, like a robustness check, based on (Monte Carlo) simulations and a sensitivity analysis. The objective weight analysis provides insights into the effects of different objective weight combinations. Indicator impacts, tornado diagrams, and risk profiles visualize the impact of uncertainties in a decision under risk. The latter enables a check for stochastic and simulation dominance. This article presents a complete range of methods for dealing with uncertainties in the ENTSCHEIDUNGSNAVI using a hypothetical case study.
Keywords
- Decision Support Systems
- Decision Theory
- Multi-Objective Decision Making
Status: accepted
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