EURO 2024 Copenhagen
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1227. Toward Climate-neutral Aviation - The Market Adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuels using Agent-based Modeling

Invited abstract in session TB-53: Toward Climate Neutrality, stream Sustainable and Resilient Systems.

Tuesday, 10:30-12:00
Room: 8007 (building: 202)

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Sandra Venghaus
Decision Analysis and Socio-Economic Assessment, RWTH Aachen
2. Jakob Rohner
School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University
3. Ali Ebadi Torkayesh
Decision Analysis and Socio-Economic Assessment, RWTH Aachen

Abstract

The European Union (EU) pursues a progressive policy course towards sustainable development, reflected in the implementation of a portfolio of targeted policies such as, e.g., the Green Deal, the Fit for 55 Package. While many of the EU's sectors have experienced declining emissions, the transport sector, aviation in particular, has shown the opposite trend. To address this challenge, the EU has launched a political effort to enforce a green transition from fossil fuels to sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). In 2023, the European Commission adopted the ReFuelEU Aviation Directive that mandates the uptake of SAFs, including power-to-liquid fuels and advanced biofuels, as part of a larger effort to achieve sustainable aviation. Analyzing and modeling the effects of such political frameworks is crucial for understanding their long-term impact on industry developments and consumer behavior. A sound system understanding to explore both direct but also indirect effects provides a crucial precondition for effective policy-design. For this purpose, an integrated approach based on joint System Dynamics and Agent-based Modeling is used to analyze the economic and environmental impact of the current regulatory framework on market development options of SAFs. Findings indicate that efficient regulatory interventions can support the transition and that achieving the green transition requires a shared responsibility among customers, industry players, and policymakers.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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