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1105. A Multi-Commodity Partial Equilibrium Model of Imperfect Competition in Future Global Hydrogen Markets
Invited abstract in session TB-9: Game Theoretic Market Equilibrium Modelling, stream Energy Markets.
Tuesday, 10:30-12:00Room: 10 (building: 116)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Lukas Barner
|
| TU Berlin / DIW Berlin |
Abstract
Recent techno-economic studies have investigated procurement costs of hydrogen and related derivatives on various international trade routes. However, strategic behavior of exporters has rarely been considered in this context, despite similar behavior frequently observed in the fossil fuel world and market characteristics indicating some potential. This work introduces a novel techno-economic model of oligopolistic trade tailored around the value chain of potential future global hydrogen markets. It is formulated as a mixed complementarity problem with a convex reformulation, allowing to solve both competitive and oligopolistic equilibria much beyond the capabilities of traditional complementarity models. Illustrative results show, that assuming perfectly competitive price formation in early phases of future global hydrogen markets may lead to overly optimistic price projections, especially within Europe, Japan and South Korea. In extreme cases, hydrogen prices may increase to ∼200 €/MWh by 2030, compared against a competitive baseline of ∼150 €/MWh. In contrast, prices may decrease by ∼25 €/MWh in exporting regions, such as Northern Africa or South-Eastern America.
Keywords
- Energy Policy and Planning
- OR in Energy
Status: accepted
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