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1005. Dynamic effects of store promotions on conversion fraction: Expanding technology applications with innovative analytics
Invited abstract in session TB-50: Retail Operations and Marketing, stream Retail Operations.
Tuesday, 10:30-12:00Room: M2 (building: 101)
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Leonardo Epstein
|
| School of Business and Economics, Universidad de los Andes | |
| 2. | Ignacio Inostroza-Quezada
|
| School of Business and Economics, Universidad de los Andes |
Abstract
In retail settings conversion fractions (CFs) matter to managers because they measure the stores’ effectiveness to convert visitors into buyers. Despite CFs importance, available methods to evaluate effects of a given marketing action (MA) on CF are scarce and provide limited evaluations of these effects. We present an approach that (i) builds a model for conversion probabilities with data outside the MA period, (ii) uses this model to predict a baseline for conversion probabilities during the promotional period conditional on the counterfactual hypothesis that the MA had not occurred, and (iii) evaluates MA effects on CF by comparing this baseline to observed data during the MA period. We illustrate our approach with data from an actual MA consisting on a two-day promotion. The analysis combines arrival data from video images and conversion data from cash registers.
Keywords
- Marketing
- Forecasting
- Revenue Management and Pricing
Status: accepted
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