VOCAL 2024
Abstract Submission

15. Estimating army effectiveness using pairwise comparison matrices

Invited abstract in session FB-2: Decision theory, stream Decision theory.

Friday, 10:15 - 11:45
Room: C 103

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Kristóf Ábele-Nagy
Institute of Operations and Decision Sciences, Department of Operations Research and Actuarial Sciences, Corvinus University of Budapest

Abstract

Pairwise comparison matrices are widely used in multi-criteria decision making, ranking, and other problems. In the presented application, the relative efficiency of the armies of participating countries or other parties in a war is analyzed. The ratio of each country's losses caused to each other can be written in a pairwise comparison matrix. Since not every country meets in battle with every other country involved, we get an incomplete pairwise comparison matrix due to missing proportions. From this matrix, taking its weight vector, the relative efficiency indicators for the armies of each country can be obtained, with which the parties that are not at war with each other can also be compared. By recalculating the matrix at different times of the war, we can also get an idea of the evolution of the relative efficiencies over time. The method is demonstrated on randomly generated data, and also on historical data at the very beginning of the First World War, which is the ultimate goal of application.

Keywords

Status: accepted


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