ORAHS2025
Abstract Submission

195. Using simulation modelling to compare the impact of alternative hospital operational policies on patient outcomes following flood disasters

Invited abstract in session TA-2: EMS and cyber attacks, stream Sessions.

Tuesday, 9:00-10:30
Room: NTNU, Realfagbygget R8

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Sorour Farahi
Southampton Business School, University of Southampton
2. Steffen Bayer
Southampton Business School, University of Southampton
3. Stephan Onggo
Southampton Business School, University of Southampton
4. Sally Brailsford
Southampton Business School, University of Southampton

Abstract

This research introduces a discrete-event simulation model examining hospital resilience during and after urban flooding disasters. The model uniquely captures both immediate physical damage to hospital infrastructure and the two-wave patient surge pattern characteristic of flooding events: first physical injuries, then infection-related illnesses. The simulation experiments analyse how different mitigation and response policies affect both routine patients and disaster victims. This work is intended to provide hospital managers with a decision support framework to develop evidence-based disaster response strategies that optimise patient outcomes during crises. We also introduced a novel patient-centred KPI by developing a health utility function that accounts for health-related outcomes in addition to process-based metrics. This function quantifies patient health states across different groups, including both disaster victims and routine patients. Unlike traditional process-based metrics that focus solely on operational efficiency, this comprehensive KPI provides a more complete assessment of hospital performance. The integration of health utility as an outcome measure advances hospital modelling, shifting focus from operational metrics to the quality of patient care and overall health outcomes.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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