ORAHS2025
Abstract Submission

121. Volatility-stratified surgical portfolios with layered spackling strategy for operating room capacity planning

Invited abstract in session HD-4: Poster session 2, stream Sessions.

Thursday, 13:30-14:00
Room: St Olavs, Kunnskapssenteret KA12

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Chao Pan
Department of Decision Sciences and Information Management, KU Leuven
2. Erik Demeulemeester
KBI, KU Leuven

Abstract

Effective operating room (OR) capacity utilization is crucial for both patient care quality and healthcare financial performance. Traditional OR planning struggles to balance scheduled elective surgeries with unpredictable emergency cases, often leading to inefficiencies like overtime and undertime. This paper adopts a design science approach to propose a novel solution featuring volatility-stratified surgical portfolios and shared OR capacity allocation. In collaboration with hospital managers and surgeons, we first framed the challenges of OR planning and explored demand-side flexibility strategies. A critical review of current methods revealed key opportunities for more adaptive and efficient planning. Drawing on volatility portfolio theory and the layered spackling strategy, we introduce a volatility-stratified portfolio that classifies surgeries into emergency (high volatility), general elective, and flexible elective (low volatility) categories. This enables the strategic use of low volatility surgeries to absorb fluctuations and mitigate emergency-related uncertainty. Comprehensive simulation—incorporating uncertainty and sensitivity analyses with empirical data from two hospitals (pre- and mid-COVID-19)—demonstrated notable improvements in OR utilization. Final validation through simulation-based assessments and workshops with practitioners confirmed the approach’s feasibility, applicability, and potential for broader adoption across service sectors.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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