2403. Discounted Sales of Expiring Groceries: The Challenge of Forecasting Demand
Invited abstract in session TA-6: Prescriptive Analytics: Sales, Logistics and Industrial Analytics, stream Analytics, Data Science, and Forecasting.
Thursday, 8:45-10:15Room: H9
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | David Winkelmann
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| Business Administration and Economics, Bielefeld University |
Abstract
Approximately 11 million tons of food are discarded annually in Germany, with over 10% attributable to the retail sector. In collaboration with the German government, major retailers have committed to halving food waste by 2030. While some retailers have initiated partnerships with aid organisations, price reductions for units nearing their expiration date are another commonly employed strategy. However, the impact of such price adjustments on sales volume remains to be investigated. In particular, enhanced sales typically affect demand forecasts for subsequent periods, potentially leading to continued overestimation of actual demand and further waste. Utilising data from a leading European grocery retailer, this study addresses the incorporation of price-discounted sales into demand forecasting models. The aim is to contribute to the reduction of food waste in the retail sector by optimising pricing strategies for expiring groceries and adjusting demand forecasts accordingly.
Keywords
- Forecasting
- Supply Chain Management
Status: accepted
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