2228. Optimizing Biomass Collection under Uncertain Quality: A Stochastic Routing Approach with Decentralized Adaptability
Invited abstract in session FA-10: Network Design, stream Supply Chain Management and Production.
Friday, 8:45-10:15Room: H16
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Julia Erdmann
|
| TU Dresden |
Abstract
Biological residues hold substantial potential for bioenergy production, but their variable quality challenges stable yields and profitability. Biorefineries must plan biomass collection with limited quality information, relying on rough on-site assessments based on visual inspection by collectors during pickup. This inherent uncertainty complicates decision-making and affects operational efficiency. Motivated by this practical context, we propose a novel hybrid two-stage stochastic framework that captures the dynamic and decentralized nature of biomass logistics with flexible on-site adaptations. The problem is formulated as a profit-maximizing, multi-vehicle Traveling Purchaser Problem, accounting for biomass quality factors. In the first stage, supplier selection, routing, and collected quantities are optimized across multiple quality scenarios to generate a robust collection plan. In the second, simulation-based stage, drivers follow pre-planned routes and make rule-based on-site adjustments, such as rejecting low-quality biomass or increasing collected quantities within vehicle capacity. We evaluate our hybrid stochastic approach against a deterministic model variant using Monte Carlo simulations across variable quality scenarios. Results show that anticipatory, scenario-based planning combined with on-site flexibility consistently delivers more resilient outcomes compared to deterministic planning. Our framework is the first biomass logistics model to incorporate driver-level autonomy in quantity decisions. By bridging centralized operational planning with field-level adaptability, it offers practical decision support for quality-sensitive biomass collection under uncertainty.
Keywords
- Stochastic Models
- Routing
Status: accepted
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