134. Sustainability-Based Risk Assessment in Complex Systems: A Strength-Influence Framework Using the WINGS Method
Invited abstract in session WE-5: Multiobjective Decision Making with Uncertainty, Risk and Fairness Considerations, stream Decision Theory and Multi-criteria Decision Making.
Wednesday, 16:30-18:00Room: H7
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Peyman Zandi
|
| Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wrocław University of Science and Technology | |
| 2. | Zbigniew Michna
|
| Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology |
Abstract
The Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method has been widely applied to analyze causal relationships among risks; however, it lacks the ability to incorporate the magnitude of risks within its modeling structure. To address this limitation, this study employs the Weighted Influence Non-linear Gauge System (WINGS) method, which is similar to DEMATEL in analyzing causal relations among system components but also has the ability to integrate the outputs of various risk assessment methods as model inputs. This feature enables the simultaneous analysis of both risk strength and risk interactions, offering a comprehensive approach referred to as "strength–influence risk analysis" within complex systems. Accordingly, this paper proposes a novel hybrid model for assessing operational risks by considering their interactions and overall effects on sustainability. First, the weights of sustainability-related risk assessment criteria are determined using fuzzy Shannon entropy, and the intensity of each risk is calculated as fuzzy numbers. Then, the defuzzified risk scores, along with the interrelations among risks, are fed into the WINGS model for final analysis. The proposed model is applied to operational risk management in a gas refinery, where the results demonstrate its effectiveness in assessing the impacts of risks on various aspects of sustainability, while accounting for cause-effect risk relationships.
Keywords
- Risk Analysis and Management
- Sustainable Development
- Decision Support Systems
Status: accepted
Back to the list of papers