727. A hybrid modelling approach for investigating interventions in renal care
Invited abstract in session MB-11: Kidney diseases and exchange, stream OR in Healthcare (ORAHS).
Monday, 10:30-12:00Room: Clarendon SR 1.03
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Lucy Morgan
|
| The Strategy Unit | |
| 2. | Sally Thompson
|
| The Strategy Unit | |
| 3. | Jennifer Wood
|
| Strategy Unit, NHS MLCSU |
Abstract
In this talk we present a combined study of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression and capacity planning for Kidney Replacement Therapy (KRT). We use a hybrid modelling approach using System Dynamics (SD) to model CKD progression and project the rate of incident KRT patients over time; and a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model to take that incidence and consider the capacity required to treat the projected demand. The modelling allows interventions in both models to be investigated meaning the impact of primary care interventions can be considered in isolation or in combination with changes to renal treatment pathways.
This project was carried out with guidance and support from the Midlands Renal Network with input from other regional networks. A facilitated modelling approach was adopted. The feedback from the network on the construction and validation of the models was critical to the project success. In this talk we present the modelling approach and project outcomes followed by reflections and planned future work.
Keywords
- Simulation
- Health Care
- Capacity Planning
Status: accepted
Back to the list of papers