EURO 2025 Leeds
Abstract Submission

452. Many Roads to Rome: Near-Optimal Transition Pathways for Industrial Energy Systems Under Uncertainty

Invited abstract in session TC-46: Decarbonizing the industry and heating sectors, stream Energy Economics & Management.

Tuesday, 12:30-14:00
Room: Newlyn 1.07

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Hendrik Schricker
Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University
2. Boyung Jürgens
Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University
3. Maria Louise Schmitt
Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University
4. Niklas von der Assen
Institute of Technical Thermodynamics

Abstract

Optimization models support the transition of industrial energy systems to low-carbon systems but face uncertainties in input data (e.g., energy prices) and model structure (e.g., decision-maker preferences). Stochastic programming addresses input data uncertainty by considering multiple scenarios. Modeling to Generate Alternatives mitigates structural model uncertainty by identifying near-optimal solutions. Intersecting near-optimal spaces across scenarios reveals near-optimal solutions robust to input data uncertainty. However, high-dimensional multi-year pathway optimization makes established methods for computing these intersections intractable.
We propose a scalable method that combines stochastic programming and Modeling to Generate Alternatives to directly explore intersections of high-dimensional near-optimal spaces without explicitly computing geometric representations. We apply our method to a sector-coupled industrial energy system and optimize multi-year pathways under natural gas phase-out by 2045, with uncertain natural gas, electricity, and CO2 prices.
We observe that scenario-optimal pathways do not lie in the intersection of near-optimal spaces. We identify over 23,000 near-optimal pathways, with at most 15% higher costs than scenario-optimal pathways. Wind turbines and PV systems emerge as must-have early investments. Our approach enables decision-makers to identify flexible decarbonization strategies and avoid lock-ins in energy transition planning.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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