2738. Modeling Robust Energy Systems Under Weather and Nuclear Failure Uncertainties: A Case Study in Northern Europe
Invited abstract in session MD-44: Decentralized energy system integration modelling, stream Energy Economics & Management.
Monday, 14:30-16:00Room: Newlyn 1.01
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Lina Reichenberg
|
| Department of Space Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology | |
| 2. | Kamran Forghani
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| Department of Space Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology | |
| 3. | Xiaoming Kan
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| Department of Space Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology | |
| 4. | Fredrik Hedenus
|
| Department of Space Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology |
Abstract
Capacity expansion models used for policy support have increasingly represented both the variability and uncertainty of weather-dependent generation (wind and solar). However, even though nuclear power output is uncertain, as demonstrated, for example, by the performance of the French nuclear power fleet in 2022, its variability and uncertainty has been largely neglected in the literature. This paper presents the first capacity expansion model that considers uncertainty in nuclear power availability. We propose a mathematical framework combining scenario-based stochastic optimization for weather-related uncertainties and data-driven adjustable robust optimization for nuclear failure uncertainties. The robust model captures the on/off behavior of large (1 GW) nuclear units while optimizing nuclear capacity. Due to computational complexity, a heuristic method is developed to solve the model efficiently. We tested the model in a case for Northern Europe with seven nodes and a time resolution of 1250 time steps. Our findings show that nuclear power outages do indeed impose a vulnerability for the energy system if not considered in the planning phase. The proposed model effectively prevents Loss-of-Load (with a 0.6% robustness cost) even under extreme weather-demand-outage scenarios. The robust solutions are characterized by a higher capacity of gas plants, but, perhaps surprisingly, the nuclear power capacity is barely impacted.
Keywords
- Energy Policy and Planning
- Robust Optimization
- OR in Energy
Status: accepted
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