2670. Coupled hydrogen and electricity electricity system in Switzerland in 2050: a comprehensive sensitivity analysis
Invited abstract in session TB-39: Sustainability & Infrastructure Systems, stream Sustainable & Resilient Systems and Infrastructures.
Tuesday, 10:30-12:00Room: Newlyn LG.01
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Giacomo Rubino
|
| Renewable Energy Systems, University of Geneva |
Abstract
Hydrogen produced from renewable electricity could enable decarbonisation of industry feedstock and process heat, heavy-duty goods transport, shipping and aviation as well as provide long-term storage to balance volatile renewable electricity. To contribute to the investigation of how hydrogen markets could develop in Switzerland, the hydrogen system composed of power-to-hydrogen (electrolysers), hydrogen-to-power (fuel cells, gas turbines), hydrogen storage (underground caverns, steel tanks) and transport options (hydrogen grid, trucks) was coupled to the spatial-explicit Swiss electricity optimization model EXPANSE. Due to the novelty of such sector-coupled model and the well-known sensitivities of energy modeling to key assumptions, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis was conducted to ensure robustness. We analysed the sensitivity of 11 key input assumptions, including technology costs, electricity and hydrogen import costs, hydrogen demand, and electricity demand, using two distinct methodological designs. First, we used a 2-levels Plackett-Burman fractional factorial design with foldover (“edge design”), which requires 24 model runs to estimate the first-order effects of the assumptions varied. Second, 500 Monte-Carlo runs with uniform distributions were conducted (“space-filling design”) to estimate Kernel density distributions and perform further statistical analyses, and to compute first-order Sobol indices. The two methods eventually complement each other.
Keywords
- OR in Energy
- Energy Policy and Planning
- Optimization Modeling
Status: accepted
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