EURO 2025 Leeds
Abstract Submission

2558. Network-Based Risk Identification in the Copper Supply Chain: A Firm-Level Analysis with Financial Performance Case Studies

Invited abstract in session WD-7: Sustainable investments and financial performance , stream Risk Management in Commodities and Financial Markets .

Wednesday, 14:30-16:00
Room: Clarendon GR.01

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Qiyan Liu
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
2. Peter Adriaens
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan

Abstract

Copper, a vital metal for renewable energy technologies, faces significant supply chain risks due to its geographically concentrated production and complex global interdependencies. Disruptions in copper supply can have cascading effects across industries, stifling economic growth, and making resilience analysis crucial. This study employs Bayesian networks to estimate disruption thresholds at the firm level, by integrating corporate financial performance ratios to provide a probabilistic assessment of vulnerabilities. By utilizing real-world data from the FactSet Supply Chain Relationship database, we construct a weighted, multi-layer firm-level network model to analyze structural characteristics and potential node failure points.
Through structural analysis, cascading failure simulations, and financial data-driven case studies, this research identifies key fragilities in the network, highlighting firms and regions most vulnerable to shocks. A case study on the copper industry validates the model, demonstrating how financial stress propagates through interconnected firms, industries, and regions. By incorporating dynamic risk transmission modeling, this study enhances the understanding of supply disruptions, offering actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders. The findings contribute to strengthening supply chain resilience, mitigating systemic risks, and ensuring the stability of the copper sector in the face of financial and operational shocks.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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