EURO 2025 Leeds
Abstract Submission

2449. Implementation of health costs due to air pollution in the TIMES model: the case of the Italian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) Scenario

Invited abstract in session TD-46: Multi-dimensional impact assessment of energy systems and projects, stream Energy Economics & Management.

Tuesday, 14:30-16:00
Room: Newlyn 1.07

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Silvia Laera
RSE Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico

Abstract

This work presents a methodology to include health costs due to exposure to the air pollutants nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) in the energy system optimisation model TIMES-RSE and assess their impact on the Italian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) Scenario. The health costs, evaluated by RSE with the air quality model SIMBAD, are expressed per unit of fuel consumed and applied to road transport and building sectors in the Italian model TIMES-RSE. TIMES is a bottom-up technology model that optimises the cost of the entire energy system over the time horizon in which the assigned demand for energy services is to be met, under environmental, technological and/or policy constraints. Health costs are then applied to the Italian NECP Scenario – developed by RSE and submitted by Italy to the European Commission in 2024 – to assess how they can influence energy planning. Comparing a scenario with and without health costs highlights changes in energy consumption, electrification and CO2 emissions. The results pave the way for including CO2-related health costs too as the model opts for solutions with lower health costs related to NOx and PM but produce more CO2, as observed with the replacement of biomass boilers by gas or diesel cars with gasoline ones. More broadly, this analysis falls under the RSE activity to create a soft link between TIMES and the air quality model SIMBAD to explore the interdependence between energy emissions and health costs.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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