2411. The effect of an ageing population on secondary care resource usage in the UK
Invited abstract in session WC-11: Health systems, stream OR in Healthcare (ORAHS).
Wednesday, 12:30-14:00Room: Clarendon SR 1.03
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Alik Vodyanov
|
| HEOR Ltd. | |
| 2. | Thomas Padgett
|
| HEOR Ltd. | |
| 3. | Phil McEwan
|
| HEOR Ltd. |
Abstract
INTRODUCTION
The NHS is under increasing pressures due to an ageing and increasingly comorbid population and is struggling to meet targets for patient waiting times and quality of treatment. The UK population is predicted to continue to age as life expectancy increases, intensifying the problem.
METHODS
A system dynamics model was developed to estimate the age- and sex-stratified UK population to 2060. People enter and leave the model through births, migration and death. Secondary care usage was predicted using NHS data.
RESULTS
The UK population is predicted to grow from 69.3M in 2025 (mean age of 40.5) to 73.7M by 2060 (mean age of 46.1). Consequently, from 2025 to 2060, annual A&E admissions are predicted to rise from 18.9M to 21.1M (11.6% increase), while annual inpatient bed days are anticipated to rise from 46.6M to 67.3M (44.4% increase). Moreover, annual outpatient procedures are predicted to rise from 13.7M to 16.6M (20.9% increase).
CONCLUSION
Population ageing will substantially increase demand for healthcare usage within an already constrained system. Delivery of healthcare must be prioritised to those with the highest need, which often means focusing on older patients. As such, younger, economically active patients are deprioritised, leading to reduced productivity. This fuels a feedback loop whereby resource to deliver healthcare is reduced, leading to further reductions in productivity.
Keywords
- Health Care
- System Dynamics and Theory
- Capacity Planning
Status: accepted
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