EURO 2025 Leeds
Abstract Submission

1958. Dynamic Modeling of Transport and Housing Choices: A Luxembourg Case Study

Invited abstract in session WA-50: Systems Thinking 3, stream Systems Thinking.

Wednesday, 8:30-10:00
Room: Parkinson B11

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Negar Rezvany
Civil Engineering, EPFL
2. Tim Hillel
UCL
3. Michel Bierlaire
ENAC INTER TRANSP-OR, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)

Abstract

The urban context is a combination of choices: (i) across time horizons: from daily travel mode decisions to long-term residential and infrastructure planning, and (ii) at different hierarchical levels: from individuals/households to public authorities. Urban areas face challenges like congestion, rising housing prices, and accessibility issues, leading to resident relocation. This highlights the need for forecasting tools to model transport and housing choices dynamically. Traditional transport models treat land use exogenously, neglecting interactions, while Land-use Transport Interaction models explore these links. A key challenge is capturing time lags between urban processes—travel mode choice (fast), residential relocation (medium), and infrastructure development (slow). We make a dynamic multi-year model integrating transport-housing feedbacks while accounting for different time lags and hierarchical levels, based on System Dynamics principles. With a daily time-step, it captures short- (daily), mid- (monthly), and long-term (yearly) decisions. An empirical application to Luxembourg with model specifications and calibration for the case-study is showcased, simulating residents’ travel and location choice behavior in Luxembourg region including the cross-border commuters. This computationally efficient decision-support tool enables policymakers to assess short- to long-term urban and transport strategies, guiding sustainable planning and investment decisions.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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