EURO 2025 Leeds
Abstract Submission

1940. Vulnerability to agricultural export shocks through the global trade network

Invited abstract in session MD-16: Food and Nutrition Security - Vulnerability, stream Sustainable Food & Agroforestry.

Monday, 14:30-16:00
Room: Esther Simpson 2.07

Authors (first author is the speaker)

1. Polle Dankers
Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University
2. Deniz Besik
Analytics & Operations, University of Richmond
3. Miranda Meuwissen
Wageningen University & Research
4. Joris Wagenaar
Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University

Abstract

The frequency and impact of events disrupting international food trade is rising. For example, the war in the Ukraine has significantly reduced grain exports, while an increasing number of natural hazards cause agricultural losses. These disruptions do not only threaten domestic food security in directly affected countries, but also propagate through global trade networks, affecting other countries as well.

In this research, we assess national vulnerability levels to foreign shocks through trade. Our approach consists of two steps:

First, we construct a model to simulate agricultural production shocks worldwide. This is mainly based on historic data, together with agricultural resilience indicators. These simulated shocks serve as input for our trade model.

Second, we model international trade flows via a spatial price equilibrium (SPE) model, which accommodates transaction costs between various supply and demand markets. SPE can also be used to examine the effects of tariffs, which can be important in the current geopolitical climate.

By integrating these models with real-world data, we estimate the food security vulnerability of countries arising from global trade disruptions. Additionally, the model can show outcomes of different scenarios, e.g., when countries decide to implement protectionist measures, providing valuable insights for policy makers in the global food system.

Keywords

Status: accepted

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